The day of the year that all cinefile’s look forward to most is almost upon us…a film buff’s Christmas is you will. This years Oscars® promises to be one of the most evenly spread fields in quite some time, and just between you and I, I’m as excited as a bogan at a Nickelback concert.

So I’m here to take you through this years nominees, who I think will be drinking for free (the winners) and a few other musings along the way. Don’t worry, I’m not covering every category….coz let’s be real, no one cares if Kathy wins an award for Production Design. The producers might have been overruled at trying to squeeze the snooze categories into the ad-break, but we got you.

Maybe we can make a drinking game of this…one shot for a correct prediction, two for a wrong one?? You know you want to….

Let the Thirsty Games begin!!!

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Adam Driver – BlackKklansman
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Sam Rockwell – Vice

“I could have been a contender”:

In any other year any of these fine performances could have walked away with the sexy, gold statuette, but Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant should consider themselves especially unlucky this year.

As certain as sunburn on a ginger:

Mahershala Ali, take a bow. Having already taken out this category at every other awards show this season, he won’t miss out on taking home his second Best Actor in a Supporting Role Oscar®,  having previously won for Moonlight in 2017. He must have come close to being nominated for the Leading Role award, such was his influence in Green Book, but he’s probably the safest bet of the night in this category.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Nominees:

Free Solo
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap

Should probably have a speech prepared, just in case:

In a year that Hollywood seemed to be all about Ruth Bader Ginsburg, RBG has seemingly been the more impressive of the two features covering the life of the Supreme Court Justice. The producers here would certainly consider themselves a sneaky chance to take home the award.

Has had the speech prepared for months:

Free Solo tells the story of the first person to free solo climb Yosemite’s El Capitan Wall and it’s been wowing audiences since taking out the People’s Choice Documentary award at the Toronto International Film Festival. It will be a hard choice to beat.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees:

Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Capernaum

In with a chance:

LOL….sif it won’t be Roma:

There is a better likelihood of Clive Palmer winning a Federal Election than there is of any other film winning in this category. Alfonso Cuarón’s gentle homage to his upbringing in 1970’s Mexico City is a work of art, eclipsing all other competitors.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees:

Amy Adams – Vice
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Chuck your keys in the bowl:

Arguably the most difficult category to pick, and the one where the Academy® might mix things up. Regina King has already taken home a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for her work in If Beale Street Could Talk, but wasn’t even nominated for a Screen Actors Guild award, which is often used as a solid indicator of Oscar® success. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both brilliant in The Favourite but would almost certainly be stealing votes from one another.

Ahh screw it…someone has to win:

A real outside chance, but with tasty enough odds to make a bet worthwhile, it might be worth having a punt on Marina de Tavira. If Roma turns out to be the awards darling that many are predicting, Marina might just end up being the Steven Bradbury of the Oscars®.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

If there were more hipsters in the Academy voter pool:

Wes Anderon’s Isle of Dogs might have been in with a chance given its critical success and the fact that it isn’t the strongest year for animated films.

But alas, there can only be one winner:

And that winner will be Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. The film is almost certain to round out its perfect record from its other nominations and wins this awards season. It seems to have made a solid impression on voters in all areas of the industry.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Nominees:

BlackKklansman
Isle Of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk

Say what now?

It’s a bit of a head-scratcher this category, with (IMO) none of the nominated films being particularly memorable in this area.

So I’m going to pick a name from a hat:

The hat says…..Isle of Dogs.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Nominees:

Shallow – A Star Is Born
All The Stars – Black Panther
I’ll Fight – RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Tell me somethin’, girl:

Lady Gaga is going home with at least one award, and it will definitely be this one. Shallow is the only truly memorable song on the list, and will be a nice consolation prize when A Star Is Born misses out  in most (if not all) other categories.

DIRECTING

Nominees:

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
Adam McKay – Vice
Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Should have had the opportunity to lose:

There is one glaring omission in the list of potential losers…that is Bradley Cooper. Arguably one of the finest directorial debuts with A Star Is Born, he really should have been recognised here.

Not that it would have made a difference to the outcome:

Alfonso Cuarón is already sending out his thank you cards to Academy voters such is the certainty of him winning his third Oscar® (second for Directing) for Roma. As mentioned before, it certainly is a standout for its artistic endeavour and we all know the Academy loves a bit of black and white pretension.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale – Vice
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Isn’t it nice you got to go to a party?

Willem Dafoe and Viggo Mortensen, sit back and enjoy your nominees gift basket, coz you ain’t taking home an award.

Whose wife did you sleep with?

Bradley Cooper first got snubbed for a Directing nomination, now he will be overlooked for his stirring acting performance.

A race of two horses:

Christian Bale or Rami Malek?…that is the question. Both have cleaned up various awards over the past six weeks, but it’s hard to get a read on who will receive the ultimate glory. If I had to pick one though, my mine it’s Christian Bale….and if for no other reason, he’s guaranteed to have the more interesting acceptance speech of the two.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees:

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Pass the dutchie on the left hand side:

Included in this years acting nominees gift bag is a membership to MOTA Los Angeles; a cannabis friendly social club…..SWEEEET! Yalitza Aparicio and Melissa McCarthy should probs just head there, coz that’s the dopest prize they’ll be taking home on the night.

There could be 100 people in the room:

And none of them will see Lady Gaga win this award. Don’t get me wrong, her performance in A Star Is Born was commendable, and in another year, it might have been enough, but Gaga is not going to have her Cher moment this year.

And then there were two: 

Oi vey, this is where is gets interesting. Given that a number of awards ceremonies leading up to now have separated dramatic and comedic categories, it’s been a pretty consistent flow of awards for Glenn Close and Olivia Colman. Both were brilliant in their respective roles, but given the voters propensity to acknowledge the dramatic over the comedic, it does lean towards Glenn Close taking home her first ever Oscar® (from 7 nominations), which will be a true highlight of the night.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

Black Panther
BlakKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Roma
A Star Is Born
Green Book
Vice

Let’s hear it for Wakanda:

Often nominees trot out the old chestnut ‘it was just an honour to be nominated’ and for a couple of films here, that’s very much the case. Black Panther broke box office records around the world and became more than just a superhero movie for a lot of people, but that’s probably not enough to get it across the line for Best Picture. It really is a remarkable achievement to have come this far though.

Probs won’t need a speech:

The Favourite was a brilliant display of acting by its three female leads, but isn’t the best movie as a whole. Likewise BlackKklansman, Vice and A Star Is Born have their strengths, but ultimately won’t take home the ultimate prize.

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

Bohemian Rhapsody could be the dark horse of the night and take the win, but more than likely will have to be happy with the slew of other awards it’s won this awards season.

And then there were two:

It really is a race of two films with Roma and Green Book to tussle it out.  It will all come down to whether voters go for a film with wide appeal that most people enjoy, or two hours of art. It’s hard to predict which way they’ll go, so I’m going to go with what I enjoyed the most…..

And the winner is: