With the Oscars happening tomorrow, it’s time to have a look at the contenders for the main categories, the hopeful winners and the sure bets. How many will be on the money?

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

TOM HANKS
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

ANTHONY HOPKINS
The Two Popes

AL PACINO
The Irishman

JOE PESCI
The Irishman

BRAD PITT
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood

Don’t waste your time with a speech:

Anthony Hopkins is a one of the greats, but his nomination here is merely a nod to a good performance. Pacino and Pesci both suffer from the ensemble curse with The Irishman, much the same way that Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were for the The Favourite in 2019. Sometimes the superior performances get overlooked when they cancel each other out.

How is he not a favourite?:

Tom Hanks should hands down be the leading contender for this award. His performance as Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is the strongest turn in this category. The lack of fanfare is surprising.

And the winner is:

Perhaps more a recognition for a career body of work than this individual performance (which is common in the supporting categories), Brad Pitt is a dead cert to take home his first acting based Academy Award for his turn in Once upon a Time…in Hollywood.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

KATHY BATES
Richard Jewell

LAURA DERN
Marriage Story

SCARLETT JOHANSSON
Jojo Rabbit

FLORENCE PUGH
Little Women

MARGOT ROBBIE
Bombshell

Be thankful for the gift basket:

A surprisingly strong year for our supporting ladies. But one who can sit back and enjoy that she got a gift basket is Kathy Bates. In a film that hasn’t even been released in Australia, Richard Jewell was never going to get the traction to get her over the line.

Any other year:

This is another ‘reward for longevity’ categories this year. All of Robbie, Pugh and Johansson have put in solid performances here. Truth be told, they’re all performances that are more memorable than last years winner, Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. If I was choosing the award, it would go to Robbie, but alas I’m not, so…..

The Oscar goes to:

Laura Dern for Marriage Story. She’s already cleaned up every other award this season and the icing on the cake will be tomorrow’s Oscar, which will be her first from three nominations.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

CORPUS CHRISTI
Poland

HONEYLAND
North Macedonia

LES MISÉRABLES
France

PAIN AND GLORY
Spain

PARASITE
South Korea

Yeah but nah:

Corpus Christi, Honeyland and Les Miserables are making up the numbers here. There are only two contenders. 

The outside chance:

Pain and Glory was a critical hit and scored Antonio Banderas a Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival. It would still be a remarkable surprise to take this award, but if any film can be the upset, this is the one.

Gonna celebrate Gangnam style:

Bong Joon Ho’s critical and commercial hit is the sure fire winner here. The intense and at times amusing psychological thriller has a chance at a few awards throughout the night, but this is one it can count on.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD

I LOST MY BODY

KLAUS

MISSING LINK

TOY STORY 4

Your guess is as good as mine:

2020 hasn’t been the strongest year for exceptional animated features. You could throw a dart on a board and pick the winner out of this lot.

But just because we have to:

To be fair, it probably won’t win….but I’m hoping it does anyway.

 

ACHIEVEMENT IN  DIRECTING

THE IRISHMAN
Martin Scorsese

JOKER
Todd Phillips

1917
Sam Mendes

ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Quentin Tarantino

PARASITE
Bong Joon Ho

Were they watching a different film than I did?:

*WARNING: unpopular opinion*  I’m sorry, but Once upon a Time…in Hollywood just isn’t a very good film. Tarantino has had many better films and his place in this category particularly when Greta Gerwig and Lulu Wang (for Little Women and The Farewell respectively) were overlooked is just insulting. Hollywood really needs to stop drinking its own bathwater.

Should have got more kudos:

Ironincally the more divisive nominee here is Todd Phillips for Joker. The film itself received mixed reviews, but honestly, it’s magnificent and deserves much more credit than it’s given.

Should definitely prepare a speech:

Martin Scorsese has his fans, and whether or not The Irishman is deserving of all its plaudits (it’s not), his popularity amongst voters alone is enough to make him a real contender here. The wildcard option though is Bong Joon Ho who wouln’t be out of place taking home the statuette for Parasite.

But DAMN will I be pissed if this guy misses out!:

If Sir Sam Mendes doesn’t get the nod here there is something seriously wrong with the voting system. 1917 is a masterpiece of film making, one of the finest cinematic achievements of the past 5 years, let alone this one.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

ANTONIO BANDERAS
Pain and Glory

LEONARDO DICAPRIO
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood

ADAM DRIVER
Marriage Story

JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Joker

JONATHAN PRYCE
The Two Popes
Not even going to waste your time talking about the other nominees, the winner is:

I’m not sure there’s ever been a more clear cut choice for any category. Joaquin Phoenix’s turn in Joker is one of the finest acticing performances PERIOD.  Absolutely mind blowing and leaves all other contenders in its wake.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

CYNTHIA ERIVO
Harriet

SCARLETT JOHANSSON
Marriage Story

SAOIRSE RONAN
Little Women

CHARLIZE THERON
Bombshell

RENÉE ZELLWEGER
Judy
Not a single chance of winning:

Films that haven’t released worldwide are zero chance of winning, therefore I’m sorry Cynthia Erivo, but best you just practice your best fake smile, the night will not be yours.

Gotta feel a little hard done by:

Ronan, Theron and Johansson all turned in solid performances. In a weaker year any wouldn’t look out of place on the winners stage. Ronan and Theron are probably hurt by the old ensemble curse again, but they both managed to find a way to stand out in a room full of stars.

It won’t be enough though, as the Reneessance has it:

She’s back from the acting wilderness and what a way to mark her return. Turning in the performance of a lifetime as the legendary Judy Garland, Zellwegger is set to score her second Oscar here. She managed to capture every bit of Garland’s fragility in the final years of her life, with a sad and affecting story behind her eyes. Judy might not have been an exceptional movie overall, but this performance certainly was.

BEST PICTURE

FORD V FERRARI

THE IRISHMAN

JOJO RABBIT

JOKER

LITTLE WOMEN

MARRIAGE STORY

1917

ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

PARASITE

LOLZ on the nom:

Not sure how a film that hasn’t been nominated in any acting or directing category can be a viable contender for Best Picture, so Ford V Ferrari is clearly just making up the numbers here.

Not worth the hype:

We know my feelings on Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood, and honestly The Irishman also needs to be put into the category of baffling amounts of hype. How a film can have a 76yo playing an at times 35yo and think that CGI magically fixes that, astounds me. At the end of the day, De Niro still moves like a 76yo, and to see him trying to beat up a guy is like watching your Granddad try to eat a steak….sad and awkward.

Good to be nominated:

Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story and Parasite are all fine films, but Best Picture they are not.

And then there were two:

Joker and 1917 would be worthy winners in any given year, but will the Academy have the courage to award such a divisive film as Joker? Probs not.

And the Academy Award goes to:

I can’t talk up this film enough. 1917 is visceral, immersive and down right brilliant.  A very worthy winner indeed.