Tomorrow will be the 96th annual Academy Awards, a celebration of a year full of some incredible films and performances….and some less than incredible ones (more on that below). Here is a sneak-peak into what this cinephile is expecting tomorrow.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
EMILY BLUNT
Oppenheimer
DANIELLE BROOKS
The Color Purple
AMERICA FERRERA
Barbie
JODIE FOSTER
Nyad
DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH
The Holdovers
Who SHOULD win?
In one of the weaker acting fields of the night, there is a clear standout in Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Her performance in The Holdovers as a grief-stricken mother overcoming the loss of her only child is something impressive. There are moments of absolute brilliance sprinkled in with a stabilising presence throughout the film. Definitely the worthy winner here. Although the supporting categories are often used as a bit of a ‘lifetime achievement’ award (see Brad Pitt winning for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood), none of the other actors are probably sitting in that boat this year. Foster already has a couple of Oscars, and whilst she was good in Nyad, there’s nothing particularly Oscar worthy in the performance. Blunt might get her chance at some point, but this wasn’t the role. Ferrera definitely made her scenes count, and her feminist monologue in Barbie is almost Oscar worthy in itself, but I largely expect the tosspot voters of the Academy to avoid anything Barbie related like the plague.
Who WILL win?
See above. This is a one-horse race.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
STERLING K. BROWN
American Fiction
ROBERT DE NIRO
Killers of the Flower Moon
ROBERT DOWNEY JR.
Oppenheimer
RYAN GOSLING
Barbie
MARK RUFFALO
Poor Things
Who SHOULD win?
In many other years, Mark Ruffalo would be preparing his acceptance speech right night now. Despite a terrible accent in Poor Things, his performance was rock solid and one of the brighter spots of an otherwise deplorable film. But alas, he won’t be taking home Oscar this year. Sterling K Brown was a non-event in American Fiction, perfectly fine, but he’s really just making up the numbers here, which is a travesty to Charles Melton who was much more memorable in May December but failed to attract a nomination. So too Robert De Niro, who didn’t really challenge himself by any means in Killers of the Flower Moon. But the one nominee who can and will have the right to feel robbed is Ryan Gosling for his turn as Ken in Barbie. Gosling stole every single scene he was in and embodied the role to absolute perfection. There is no one else in Hollywood who could have done what he did with that role. It might not be conventional Oscar fodder, but it’s everything the award should be about.
Who WILL win?
This year’s lifetime achievement Oscar will go to Robert Downey Jr. for his role in Oppenheimer. Don’t get me wrong, RDJ did a ripping job as the scurrilous Lewis Strauss, but unlike Gosling’s performance in Barbie, there are at least a dozen actors that could have given the same performance as Downey Jr. In fact, you could substitute Stanley Tucci in a heartbeat and none would be the wiser. But RDJ has an incredible body of work, and the way he has turned his career around is certainly worthy of recognition nonetheless. He is by no means an undeserving winner here.
DIRECTING
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Justine Triet
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Martin Scorsese
OPPENHEIMER
Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS
Yorgos Lanthimos
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Jonathan Glazer
Who SHOULD win?
Well the best director of the past year sadly isn’t even nominated. The absolute absurdity of the director of the highest grossing, most talked about film of 2023 not getting nominated is beyond belief. Greta Gerwig YOU WERE ROBBED, especially when the likes of Yorgos Lanthimos made the cut. The Academy tried to smooth things over by including a woman in the five (and I bet they’re still patting themselves on the back for that), but whilst Anatomy of a Fall was good, the direction of Justine Triet wasn’t in the same league as what Greta Gerwig achieved with Barbie. Lanthimos and Scorsese don’t belong on this list at all. Poor Things was abysmal and grotesque and Killers of the Flower Moon was an overblown, longwinded mess that failed to focus on the characters it should have, and at a near 4 hour running time, was surely taking the piss out of its audience. Why is it that men in this industry always think that what they’re saying is so much more profound than it is, and that ANYONE wants to listen to them for that long? The one director that really hit the mark when it comes to unique, inventive storytelling and really deserves the credit here is Jonathan Glazer for his impeccable direction in The Zone of Interest, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough buzz around him which hurts his chances.
Who WILL win?
After previously missing out in this category for Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan will finally take home the directing Oscar for his impressive work with Oppenheimer. It’s not undeserved, and aside from his absolute inability to write or direct women with substance, this was a considerable achievement in filmmaking.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
ANNETTE BENING
Nyad
LILY GLADSTONE
Killers of the Flower Moon
SANDRA HÜLLER
Anatomy of a Fall
CAREY MULLIGAN
Maestro
EMMA STONE
Poor Things
Who SHOULD win?
In what’s probably the strongest acting category of the night, one could make a case for almost any of the ladies nominated here. Annette Benning entirely embodied endurance swimmer Diana Nyad in the biographical Netflix film, and in another year she might have just taken home her first Oscar from a total of five nominations. If this were the supporting category, her body of work overall might have gotten her across the line, but that won’t fly here. Sandra Hüller performed magnificently in both Anatomy of a Fall and her unnominated performance in The Zone of Interest, but again there are stronger candidates in this field. If the Oscars were actually just about achievements in filmmaking and acting, then this award would be fought between Emma Stone for Poor Things and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. Stone made an otherwise unbearable film almost worth watching, but for mine it was Mulligan’s captivating performance in Maestro that really deserves the plaudits. Given the film was about the life of acclaimed composer Leonard Bernstein, the fact that her turn as his wife Felicia Montealegre was the most compelling part of the film is an incredible achievement. This is Mulligan’s third nomination in this category, and arguably she should already have one Oscar under her belt for her incredible performance in Promising Young Woman, but for the second time in her career, she’s about to be screwed over by the Academy.
Who WILL win?
This is time where all the old white folk at the Academy will be able to pat themselves on the back for their support of diversity. Lily Gladstone will become the first Indigenous American to win an Academy Award. That’s not something to scoff at, and it’s well overdue….however this isn’t the performance that deserves to break through that ceiling. Killers of the Flower Moon SHOULD have revolved heavily around her character as Osage woman Mollie. Instead Martin Scorsese focussed more on the boring white men and reduced Gladstone to a largely silent, blanket clad prop. After tomorrow, the members of the Academy will applaud their generosity, and for Gladstone, she will likely go the way of other minorities that have had the spotlight shone on them, where the work will dry up and she’ll fade into obscurity. Instead of a token award, more needs to be done to write and produce indigenous stories that are told from their perspective, not an ancient old man that is so far removed from the subject matter it’s laughable. It’s hard to tell whether Lily Gladstone is a great actress on the back of this performance as she just wasn’t given the opportunity to thrive on the back of a poorly written script and an overwhelmingly dull direction.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
BRADLEY COOPER
Maestro
COLMAN DOMINGO
Rustin
PAUL GIAMATTI
The Holdovers
CILLIAN MURPHY
Oppenheimer
JEFFREY WRIGHT
American Fiction
Who SHOULD win?
I can’t comment on Colman Domingo as I haven’t seen Rustin, but from the others nominated here, this is really a two-horse race. Bradley Cooper simply tried too hard in his self-directed turn in Maestro and Jeffrey Wright was very good in American Fiction, but it didn’t venture beyond that for mine. If the award was up to me, it would be Paul Giamatti taking home the Oscar. His work in The Holdovers was brilliant and heart-warming and thoroughly deserving of this accolade.
Who WILL win?
Cillian Murphy’s work as J. Robert Oppenheimer is also a very deserving winner and it will be he who takes home this award. It’s not by a great margin that I rated Giamatti’s work higher, but more a matter of personal preference. Murphy was captivating in a gruelling 3 hour film where almost every moment involved him. Definitely a worthy winner here.
BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN FICTION
ANATOMY OF A FALL
BARBIE
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
PAST LIVES
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
This is probably the best year to argue that the Best Picture category should reduce from 10 films, back down to 5. The majority of films here are merely making up the numbers, in fact of the 10, I could honestly only make a case for 4 of them to be a worthy winner.
What SHOULD win?
Now I’m going against almost every critic who has looked at the lead up to the Oscars when I say that Barbie SHOULD be the film taking home the award. But the absolute disdain that the Academy has shown those involved with the film thus far proves that it just isn’t in with the chance it justifiably deserves. The Holdovers on another year might have been a real chance, I feel like it’s the kind of film that would have been a certainty to win 20 years ago. The outside chance that I really love here though is The Zone of Interest. I saw it 5 days ago and haven’t been able to stop thinking about it since. It’s seriously an impressive piece of filmmaking.
What WILL win?
Whilst Barbie might have won more viewers at the Box Office, it will be Oppenheimer that takes the chocolates this awards season. An impressive film, even more so when viewed on the huge IMAX screen that does it justice, it will be a deserving winner overall.
The Oscars will air in Australia on Monday March 11 (a very special day for the Moviedoc fam as Moviedoc himself, one Leigh Farrugia will be turning 40…..so Happy Birthday my beautiful friend!!!).
Moviedoc 